Continuing with my series on leadership lessons from Costa Rica, today I want to talk about how a volcano made me take a second look at unpredictability.
While in Costa Rica, we spent 3 days in the Arenal volcano area. Arenal has the 3rd most perfect conical shape in the world and is considered one of the top ten most active volcanoes. According to Wikipedia The Arenal volcano measures at least 1,633 metres (5,358 ft), with a crater spanning 140 metres (460 ft). The volcano was dormant for hundreds of years covered by dense vegetation. In 1968 it erupted unexpectedly, destroying the small town of Tabacón.
Between 1968-2011, Arenal had 1,968 major explosions. Since 2010, however, the volcano’s seismicity, explosions, and lava flows have decreased significantly, although fumaroles on the summit and flanks continue to emit gases, and there are numerous hot springs ringing the base of the volcano. Scientists assure us, it’s still alive; just sleeping.
Our guide on the trail to the lava fields told us he is nervous about the volcano because it’s totally unpredictable, and you never know when it will decide to have another explosion. Since it has been quiet for awhile, he fears when it does explode again it could bring danger to tourists and locals alike.
Should I be predictable or unpredictable?
When it comes to leadership, there are two extremes regarding predictability. On one hand we have those leaders who are set in their ways, staid, and perhaps boring. You know how they’re going to react and say before they open their mouth. They keep repeating the same actions that don’t work anymore, and interfere with innovation and growth. They are "sleeping."
On the other hand, there are those who are erratic, overly emotional and easily swayed by their circumstances. You’re never quite sure what you’re going to get, and you hope that you get them on a good day. Or at least that the explosion will not be too extensive or deadly.
Just as my guide is uneasy with the volcano’s unpredictability, unpredictable leaders produce uneasy followers. Predictability engenders trust and an unpredictable leader elicits anxiety and, in some cases, even fear, both of which negatively affect performance and productivity.
In an ideal world, leaders need to be both predictable and unpredictable. When circumstances are challenging and the pressure is intense, you need to be predictable as a leader. People need you to be even emotionally and to hear a consistent message. As a result, your people will not be scared to approach you with bad news, will feel safe, and therefore unguarded and open with you.
Alternatively, during easier times, you should be a leader who is a little bit unpredictable, who generates new ideas and fosters a culture of innovation. One who is constantly reading, learning and developing so that you can surprise your team with fresh insights and concepts that challenge the status quo, build momentum and take your people to a new level.
Remember. . .
Leaders that are perceived as stable, self assured, and predictable can motivate their teams to perform at higher levels and maintain their focus better than those that who are unpredictable.
Photos by: Logos Noesis and pattista